Dr. Ming-Shih Shen, a prominent Taiwanese defense expert, expressed concerns that China might prefer the absence of Donald Trump from the White House if tensions over Taiwan escalate, considering his robust policies against China during his presidency.
Fox News reported that tensions between the U.S. and China could potentially heighten if former President Trump were to reclaim office, according to experts in Taiwanese security.
According to Dr. Shen, who heads the national security division at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the prospect of Trump’s return could induce a more cautious approach from China towards Taiwan.
This perspective stems from the punitive actions China took against members of the Trump administration, demonstrating a clear aversion to Trump's confrontational tactics.
On the day President Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, China imposed sanctions on 28 individuals associated with the Trump administration, including high-profile figures like Mike Pompeo and Matthew Pottinger. This move underscored the strained relations between China and the Trump-led U.S. administration, highlighting the stark contrast in diplomatic approaches between the successive administrations.
Dr. I-Chung Lai of The Prospect Foundation notes that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship saw significant improvements during Trump’s tenure, beginning in 2016.
These enhancements were largely attributed to Trump's assertive policy stance towards China, which had broader implications for Taiwan's international standing and security strategy.
During Trump's presidency, there was an increase in regular U.S. military movements through the Taiwan Strait, a strategic passage critical for Taiwan’s security. This military presence was part of a broader strategy to reinforce Taiwan's defense capabilities amid rising tensions in the region.
The assertive stance of the Trump administration was not without its critics. Trump's comments regarding the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, suggesting it was usurping American jobs, sparked concerns within Taiwan. This illustrates the complex dynamics of U.S.-Taiwan relations, where economic and security interests are closely intertwined.
The Biden administration has adopted a more moderate tone towards China compared to its predecessor.
This shift is evident in the recent deal finalized in April with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., facilitating the expansion of its operations into Arizona and creating over 25,000 new jobs. This move is part of a broader strategy to stabilize relations through economic cooperation and development.
Despite the perceived moderation, Dr. Lai emphasizes that the Taiwanese population holds a nuanced view of U.S. presidential policies.
While Trump’s direct actions in strengthening U.S.-Taiwan ties are appreciated, there is also an acknowledgment of the efforts by the Biden administration to maintain and expand these relations through different strategies.
Dr. Shen further argues that the repercussions of Trump’s potential re-election and his anticipated strong response to any aggressive moves by China could act as a deterrent, shaping China’s strategies in the region. His statement, "If China’s attitude is to maintain stability and peace in the Taiwan Strait and increase relations between the United States and China, then either is no problem.
But if China shows increased aggressive posture, I think China would be more afraid of Trump than Biden," encapsulates the strategic calculations involved.
Understanding the different approaches of U.S. administrations is crucial for assessing future geopolitical dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. The varying degrees of confrontation and collaboration can significantly influence China's foreign policy decisions concerning Taiwan and the broader Asia-Pacific region.
As tensions potentially escalate with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the international community remains watchful.
The strategic choices of China, and the U.S., and their impacts on Taiwan will likely be critical in maintaining or disrupting the delicate balance of peace and power in the region.
In conclusion, the interplay of U.S. presidential policies, China's strategic considerations, and Taiwan's security concerns creates a complex geopolitical landscape. The potential re-election of Trump could reintroduce a more confrontational U.S. stance towards China, impacting not only bilateral relations but also the broader regional security architecture. The appreciation for the policies of the Biden administration showcases the delicate balance Taiwan seeks to maintain amidst these global power shifts.