Former Democratic senator Joe Manchin voiced his support for Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's open Senate contest, a cross-party move that signals trouble for Democrats in the most competitive seat on the 2026 map.
Manchin made the declaration Monday on CNBC's "Squawk Box," where co-host Joe Kernen repeatedly pressed him to say the word "endorse." Manchin refused the label but left no ambiguity about where he stands. When asked whether he could accept a victory by Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Manchin answered with a flat "No," then told the hosts directly:
"Well, no, no, I do support Mike Rogers. I think Mike Rogers is a good person. I think he'll do a great job."
Rogers is competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. The Cook Political Report rates the Michigan contest a toss-up, the only Democratic-held Senate seat at that level, making it the GOP's clearest pickup opportunity this cycle. A late-August survey commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV showed Rogers ahead 45.8 percent to El-Sayed's 44.4 percent, a lead within the margin of error.
Early voting in Michigan begins October 24. Manchin's public backing hands Rogers a bipartisan credential in a state where swing voters decide elections.
The former West Virginia senator has built a second career out of splitting the difference. He dropped his Democratic Party affiliation in his final months in office, called the party label "toxic," and launched a drive over the summer to elect more independents. But on the Michigan race, the difference he split was razor-thin.
Manchin grouped Rogers with Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski, calling all three "independent, free-thinking Republicans, not completely crazy right or completely crazy left." He committed to campaign for Collins in Maine, saying her loss would cost the Senate "the soul of the Senate."
The Washington Examiner reported that Manchin confirmed his backing of Rogers when pressed on why he had not yet publicly supported the Republican, a question that itself suggests the move had been anticipated for some time.
Rogers posted on X after the appearance, thanking Manchin: "I'm thankful to have the support of a true patriot, former Sen. @JoeManchinWV."
Manchin's support for a Republican Senate candidate fits a pattern that has rattled Democratic leadership. The party has watched its own members drift toward the GOP on everything from procedural votes to outright caucus loyalty.
Manchin was never a reliable party-line vote during his Senate tenure. He opposed weakening the filibuster in 2013 and again in 2017. In January 2022, he and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema joined Republicans to defeat Chuck Schumer's push to change filibuster rules for two election bills. That vote failed 48, 52, and Democrats have not forgotten it.
His record on national security put him closer to Rogers than to many in his own former party. Manchin backed FISA reauthorization in 2018 and 2020 and once described his support for the surveillance authority as "1,000 percent for it, for the security of our nation." Rogers, a former congressman, was himself a longtime supporter of FISA warrant powers during his time in the House.
That shared ground on security makes the pairing less surprising than the headline suggests. Both men prioritized intelligence tools over the civil-liberties objections raised by groups like the ACLU. In a Senate race where national security and trade policy are live issues, the alignment is substantive, not just symbolic.
Manchin did attach a condition, at least rhetorically, to his support. He told CNN that Rogers "has to" reject President Donald Trump's trade agenda to win Michigan, then added, "We'll have to see." It was a hedge, but it pointed to the issue that could define the race in a manufacturing-heavy state.
Rogers addressed the tariff question during a Fox News appearance over the weekend. He said he would judge each tariff on whether it helps or hurts the country, a case-by-case framing that gives him room to distance himself from any specific trade measure without breaking with the administration wholesale.
That kind of flexibility is exactly what a Republican needs in Michigan, where auto workers and parts suppliers feel trade policy in their paychecks. It is also the kind of positioning that earned Collins and Murkowski the "independent, free-thinking" praise from Manchin. The trend of elected officials breaking with their own party has become a recurring feature of this Congress, and voters in competitive states appear to reward it.
Rogers' Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, won the Michigan primary on August 5, but the margin was closer than the party anticipated. That result hinted at a Democratic electorate less unified than leadership wanted heading into November.
Manchin's refusal to accept an El-Sayed victory, stated bluntly on national television, will give Republicans a quote to run in every swing-voter mailbox in the state. A former Democratic senator saying "No" when asked if the Democratic nominee is acceptable is not a minor embarrassment. It is a usable weapon.
Democrats have seen internal fractures hand Republicans wins before. Manchin's move adds Michigan to the list of places where the party's own alumni are working against its candidates.
Collins and Murkowski, the two Republican senators Manchin grouped with Rogers, have themselves crossed party lines on occasion. Manchin's praise of all three as moderates is designed to frame Rogers as a pragmatist, a label that plays well in a state decided by thin margins.
Manchin served in the Senate from 2010 until 2025. In that time, he became the Democrat most willing to defy his party's leadership on votes that mattered. His support for Rogers is the logical next step: once you leave the party and call its brand toxic, backing the other side's candidate is just finishing the thought.
When a man who spent fifteen years in the Democratic caucus looks at his party's Senate nominee and says he cannot accept that candidate winning, the problem is not Joe Manchin. The problem is what the Democratic Party is offering voters.