Democrat lawmakers in California are privately sounding alarms that their own crowded primary field could hand Republicans something the party hasn't held since 2011: the governor's mansion. And the man leading the charge from the right says they have no one to blame but themselves.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton sit atop recent polling in California's gubernatorial race, with Hilton at 17% and Bianco at 14%. Under California's top-two "jungle primary" system, only the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. With eight Democrat candidates splitting the left's vote, the math is brutal for Democrats.
Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter trail at 14% and 12%, respectively. Billionaire Tom Steyer sits at 9%. The Democrat field is so fractured that one Democrat state legislator privately called the situation a "sh**show," according to the New York Post.
Democrats want to frame this as a mechanical problem. Too many candidates, not enough coordination. Bianco, speaking to Fox News Digital, rejected that framing entirely:
"It's not because of a lack of a Democrat candidate, it's the lack of a Democrat policy that they can show has helped California. The Democrat policy is indefensible in California."
That's not campaign bluster. It's a dare. Name the policy. Point to the results. Bianco is betting Democrats can't, and so far, the polling suggests voters agree with him.
He noted that two Republicans have led the polls for the last six months, a trend that tracks well beyond any single news cycle or convention speech. This isn't a polling blip. It's a trajectory.
"Yeah, so yes, I think it's a little bit odd that they're panicking about that, and they don't recognize that it's because of decades of complete Democrat failure."
The panic, in other words, is a symptom. The disease is governance.
Democrats gathered this weekend at the Moscone Center in San Francisco for their state party convention. Nancy Pelosi took to the stage. Swalwell waved to the crowd before speaking. Katie Porter made her pitch. The party faithful showed up.
But behind the podium energy, the math remained unchanged. It is still unclear which of the eight Democratic gubernatorial candidates will receive the party's official nomination, and the jockeying shows no signs of resolving itself before the June primary.
This is the structural trap California Democrats built for themselves. The top-two primary system was supposed to produce moderate, broadly appealing candidates. Instead, it's exposing a party that cannot consolidate behind anyone because everyone believes they deserve the job. Ambition without discipline is just a circular firing squad.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa dismissed the entire scenario. He told the New York Post that "everybody has a right to run" and called the notion that two Republicans could win the primary "poppycock."
Bianco had a simple response:
"Obviously, polling contradicts that statement. Two Republicans have been ahead in the polls for the last six months."
"Poppycock" is an interesting word choice from a man whose party has controlled the governor's office since Arnold Schwarzenegger left in 2011. It radiates the kind of confidence that only comes from never having to seriously compete. California Democrats have treated the state like a private fiefdom for so long that the mere suggestion of a competitive race feels like an impossibility to them.
That complacency is exactly why the numbers look the way they do.
The polling tells a story that no amount of convention stagecraft can rewrite. In a state with an overwhelming Democrat registration advantage, two Republicans have led the field for half a year. That doesn't happen because of a quirky primary system. It happens because voters are looking for something different.
Bianco framed it in terms that strip away the political jargon:
"California is looking for change. They are looking for honesty, integrity, transparency, and leadership."
The June primary will test whether Democrats can solve their coordination problem or whether their bench is simply too deep with ambition and too shallow on results. If two Republicans do advance to the November ballot, it would mark the first real shot at a GOP governor in California since Schwarzenegger's departure, a political earthquake in the bluest of blue states.
Democrats aren't panicking because of a scheduling conflict or a quirk in election law. They're panicking because California voters are looking at fifteen years of one-party rule and asking what, exactly, they got for it. Nobody at the Moscone Center had a good answer.