Four-term Texas Senator John Cornyn is staring down the possibility that he won't even make the runoff in his own primary — despite his allies torching more than $50 million on campaign advertising. New polling shows Cornyn mired in third place behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, with early voting just days away.
A J.L. Partners survey released Thursday found Paxton at 27%, Hunt at 25.7%, and Cornyn at 25.5% among likely GOP primary voters. A Cygnal survey conducted January 26–28 painted a similar picture: Paxton at 25.7%, Hunt at 25.1%, Cornyn at 22.4%. In both polls, roughly a quarter of voters remain undecided — and the incumbent senator is nobody's second choice.
The March 3 primary is widely expected to produce a runoff, scheduled for late May. The question isn't whether Cornyn can win outright. It's whether he survives at all.
The Daily Caller reported that Cornyn and his allies have already spent north of $50 million and are pledging another $10 million ad blitz before the primary. To put that in perspective, the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC has spent less than 1% of what pro-Cornyn groups have combined. Standing for Texas, a pro-Hunt nonprofit, has deployed roughly $6 million.
Paxton noticed the disparity. He posted on X:
"He's stolen $50+ million from races in NC, ME, MI, and GA and what does he have to show for it? He's stuck in the mid-20s, doesn't even know if he'll make the runoff, and is set to lose by huge margins even if he does."
The reference to other states is pointed. Cornyn, as a senior Senate figure, directed massive resources toward Senate races that Republicans ultimately lost. Now he's redirecting that same donor firehose toward saving himself — and the returns are, to put it gently, not encouraging.
Fifty million dollars to land in third place. Another ten million pledged to claw back into second. At some point, the diminishing returns stop being a strategy problem and start being a candidate problem.
The most interesting number in the J.L. Partners survey isn't the top line. It's the head-to-head matchups. In a two-man race, Hunt leads Cornyn 44% to 33% — an 11-point gap. Hunt leads Paxton 44% to 34%. Even Paxton edges Cornyn in a head-to-head, 41% to 40%.
Wesley Hunt is running an insurgent campaign that seems to be consolidating the anti-Cornyn vote more effectively than Paxton. He spoke on the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention. He carries none of Cornyn's Washington baggage and none of Paxton's personal turbulence. In a runoff against either opponent, he's the strongest candidate in the field.
For Cornyn, the math is brutal. Even if he claws into second place and makes the runoff, the polling suggests he loses to whichever candidate he faces. The $50 million bought him name recognition that voters are using to vote against him.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told the DCNF in January that he asked President Trump to publicly back Cornyn. Those conversations have not materialized into an endorsement.
Trump, who often acts as a kingmaker in GOP primary contests, has stayed out of this one. That silence speaks. In a race this tight, a Trump endorsement could be decisive — and Cornyn doesn't have it. Whether that reflects Trump's assessment of Cornyn's standing with the base, a desire to let Texas sort itself out, or something else entirely, the practical effect is the same: Cornyn is on his own.
Cornyn campaign senior advisor Matt Mackowiak offered the DCNF a one-liner:
"We have a plan to win the primary and we are executing it."
That's the kind of thing campaigns say when the plan is working. It's also the kind of thing campaigns say when it isn't.
The NRSC circulated internal polling this week, making a general election case for Cornyn. Their numbers show Paxton trailing Democratic state legislator James Talarico by 3 points in a head-to-head and barely leading Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Cornyn, by contrast, leads Talarico by 3 and Crockett by 7.
It's the strongest card Cornyn has left: electability. The argument is that Paxton — who carries ethical baggage and is currently divorcing his wife of 38 years — poses a real risk of handing a Texas Senate seat to Democrats. That's not a trivial concern in a cycle where every seat matters.
But electability arguments have a shelf life, and they tend to expire when the candidate making them can't win his own primary. Republican voters in Texas have heard the "electable moderate" pitch before. They've also watched candidates sold on electability lose winnable races while outsiders won theirs. The NRSC polling may be accurate. It may also be irrelevant if primary voters have already decided they want someone new.
If Cornyn fails to make the runoff, he would be the first sitting senator to lose to a primary challenger since 2010. First elected in 2002, he has held the seat for more than two decades. That kind of tenure used to be an asset. In the current Republican Party, it's a liability that $60 million apparently can't offset.
The undecided voters — over 20% in both polls — will determine whether this is a two-man race between Paxton and Hunt or whether Cornyn sneaks into the runoff. But even the optimistic scenario for Cornyn is grim: survive to May, then face a head-to-head matchup where he trails by double digits.
Twenty-three years in Washington. Fifty million dollars spent. Third place.
Early voting begins in 11 days. Texas Republicans will decide whether longevity and spending are enough — or whether they've been enough for too long.