House Speaker Mike Johnson just lost another piece on his already shrinking chessboard with the sudden death of California Republican Representative Doug LaMalfa, Newsweek reported.
The GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives slipped further after LaMalfa’s passing, now standing at just 218-213. This comes on the heels of former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene’s exit from Congress on Monday, tightening the screws even more on Johnson’s ability to steer legislation.
With only a five-seat edge, every vote counts, and even a whisper of dissent within the Republican ranks could grind progress to a halt. Political science professor Costas Panagopoulos pointed out that this slim margin turns every individual GOP member into a potential kingmaker or dealbreaker.
“These developments have now raised the importance of any individual Republican House member who can almost single-handedly control what Republicans can do in the House,” Panagopoulos told Newsweek. Such power in the hands of a few could force Johnson to rethink his playbook, possibly making room for bipartisan nods just to keep the ship afloat.
The math gets uglier with the upcoming special elections that might tilt the balance further. Democrats are poised to snag a seat in Texas’ 18th Congressional District on January 31, 2026, and another in New Jersey’s 11th District on April 16, potentially shrinking the GOP lead to a nail-biting 218-215.
If those seats flip as expected, Johnson can’t afford a single absence or rogue vote on any bill. Add to that the hospitalization of Indiana Republican Representative Jim Baird after a car crash, and the GOP’s grip looks shakier by the day.
Johnson honored LaMalfa on X Tuesday morning, calling him a “fierce fighter” for California’s natural resources and a beloved figure in Congress. “We are mourning the loss of our friend and brother today,” Johnson wrote, extending condolences to LaMalfa’s wife Jill and their family.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise also paid respects, highlighting LaMalfa’s passion as a fourth-generation rice farmer who championed rural America. He noted LaMalfa’s role as Chairman of the Congressional Western Caucus in 2024 and his knack for spreading cheer with his famous “LaMaffles” around Capitol Hill.
Even across the aisle, California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff expressed sorrow, describing LaMalfa as a committed public servant. Schiff’s words underscore a rare moment of unity in a polarized Congress, showing respect for a man who prioritized his constituents above all.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has yet to set a date for a special election to fill LaMalfa’s seat, which sits in a traditionally conservative district. While Republicans would typically hold the edge, a new map approved by California voters last year gives the area a Democratic lean, with the Cook Political Report rating it as Solid Democrat.
Similarly, no date has been announced for the race to replace Greene’s seat, where Republicans remain favored. But with every vacancy and special election, the GOP’s hold on power hangs by a thread, vulnerable to the slightest shift.
Panagopoulos warned that Republicans are inching “dangerously close” to a point where Democrats could seize control of the chamber. He added a sobering reminder that deaths or retirements could just as easily strike the Democratic side, creating equal headaches given the House’s current makeup.
For now, Johnson must navigate this fragile landscape with a coalition that could splinter at any misstep. Every legislative push, from funding rural schools to disaster recovery efforts that LaMalfa once fought for, risks stalling without absolute party loyalty.
The question lingers whether Johnson will bend toward compromise with Democrats to secure wins or double down on corralling his own caucus. Panagopoulos hinted that we’ll soon see if the Speaker adapts his strategy to this high-wire act of governance.
LaMalfa’s death isn’t just a personal loss for Congress; it’s a stark reminder of how fleeting political power can be in such divided times. As the GOP braces for what’s next, the fight to maintain control promises to be as fierce as the battles LaMalfa waged for his beloved northern California.