Veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer ends her career in election polling amid criticisms following a significantly inaccurate poll showing Kamala Harris leading in Iowa.
Fox News reported that J. Ann Selzer, a renowned figure in the polling industry, recently announced her retirement following a controversial final poll in Iowa. Her career, spanning over three decades, ended on a note of disparity between her predictions and actual electoral outcomes, sparking widespread media critique.
Selzer’s last poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, initially showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading President-elect Donald Trump with a margin of 47% to 44%.
This result was unexpected as it contradicted both the historical voting trends in Iowa and a previous September poll conducted by Selzer herself, which had Trump leading by 4 percentage points.
Iowa, traditionally a stronghold for Trump, had previously seen him winning by significant margins—9.4 points in 2016 and 8.2 points in 2020 against his Democratic contenders. The latest polling by Selzer prior to the 2024 election, therefore, came as a shock to many, including seasoned political analysts and commentators.
The backlash was intensified when the actual election results showed Trump defeating Harris by more than 14 percentage points—dramatically diverging from the poll's predictions. This led to Selzer facing questions regarding the integrity of her poll, coupled with accusations from some corners of data manipulation and voter influence.
Selzer defended her methodology and integrity, affirming her professional experience and denying any malpractice.
"Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist," Selzer remarked, expressing her stance on the unexpected election outcome and the scrutiny that followed.
In her defense, Selzer stated that the polling data, which showed Harris potentially winning Iowa, could have energized the Republican base, who might have presumed the election was securely in their favor.
This theory suggests that the poll results, far from manipulating outcomes, may have inadvertently contributed to the increased voter turnout for Trump.
Despite the professional storm, Selzer was already in the process of winding down her career. Over a year ago, she had informed the Des Moines Register of her decision not to renew her contract post-2024, hoping to transition to other ventures and opportunities.
"Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course," Selzer shared, reflecting on the irony of her last professional act.
Criticism from media figures like Piers Morgan, who called the poll "a turkey of Biblical proportions," and Joe Simonson, who openly branded Selzer a "disgrace," amplified the fallout. These comments highlight the intense scrutiny and public discourse surrounding polling inaccuracies, especially in politically significant states like Iowa.
Selzer’s formidable career included contributions to the Detroit Free Press, the Indianapolis Star, Bloomberg News, and other notable organizations.
Her extensive experience provided insights that shaped public and political discourse over many years, making her latest, and last, poll a focal point of her career's culmination.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the insights and methodologies from veteran pollsters like Selzer will undoubtedly leave a lasting imprint on the science of polling—even as the field faces new challenges and a continuously changing electorate.