If Donald Trump is reelected in November 2024, his appointees could reshape the U.S. Supreme Court, further tipping its ideological scales.
The New York Post reported that this election's outcome could grant Trump the power to nominate a majority of Justices, altering the court's direction for decades.
Former President Donald Trump, if victorious in the upcoming presidential election, may have an unprecedented opportunity to impact the future of the U.S. Supreme Court.
The potential for several justices to retire or step down during his term could open the door for Trump to nominate their replacements.
Among the current justices, the focus is particularly on Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who will be 74 by the end of 2028 and has experienced health issues alongside complaints regarding her workload.
There are concerns that if she were to retire during a second Trump term, the number of liberal justices would be reduced significantly.
Further adding to the significant shift, two senior conservative justices, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, might also consider retirement.
They will be 80 and 79, respectively, by the end of 2028. Their retirement under the Trump administration could mean their replacement with even younger conservative justices, keeping the ideological makeup of the court predominantly conservative for the foreseeable future.
In Trump's previous term, he successfully appointed three justices — Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett — who have been pivotal in shifting the court to the right, as seen in landmark cases such as the overturning of Roe vs. Wade in 2022.
This trio represents the solid conservative bloc that could be further entrenched by future appointments.
The outcome of the 2024 Senate races is also crucial since Republican control would facilitate the confirmation of Supreme Court nominees.
With the GOP potentially gaining a majority, Trump’s candidates for the Court would likely face smoother confirmation processes, bypassing significant hurdles that could arise with a Democrat-controlled Senate.
Currently, nearly a dozen U.S. Court of Appeals judges are eyed by conservative groups as appropriate candidates for the Supreme Court.
This list could serve as a primary source for Trump’s nominations, aiming to deepen the conservative legal philosophy within the highest court in the United States.
The potential for a skewed Supreme Court has kindled debates among progressives about court packing — an idea that involves expanding the number of justices to rebalance ideological scales.
Vice President Kamala Harris has expressed openness to this notion, reflecting the concerns many Democrats feel about a disproportionately conservative Court.
Notable legal figures and political activists have voiced strong opinions regarding this scenario.
Andrew Tobias, a prominent Democrat activist, expressed concerns about the enduring conservative majority impact by stating, "Were Trump to win, he might well extend the life of [his] majority by a generation or more, replacing Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito with much younger versions of the same thing — and all too possibly expand that majority even further if one of the three progressive Justices should have to be replaced."
Conservative attorney Mike Davis, a potential nominee for U.S. Attorney General under Trump, lauded Justice Alito for his role in landmark conservative decisions, saying, "Alito has overturned Roe. He’s done what he wants to do. Justice Alito is a great man and has earned his retirement."
Leonard Leo, a co-chairman of the Federalist Society, highlighted the strategic importance of the forthcoming elections.
He noted, "If Republicans take the Senate and the presidency this November and a vacancy occurs on the Supreme Court for some reason after that, the White House would be in very good shape."